The hottest June polyethylene market is hard to ge

In June, the polyethylene market was difficult to get rid of the general environment.

due to concerns about the economic environment, the commodity market as a whole was in a state of decline in May. The PE market drifted with the tide, and the decline was rare this year. Whether the market improved in June will still depend on the reversal of the overall situation of the global commodity market

1. International crude oil market

in May, the international crude oil market was obviously lack of vitality. The panic mentality about the economic environment was reflected in the previous general expectation of economic recovery, and the pressure became particularly huge. The debt crisis in the euro zone has not been fully revealed, and the countries in the euro zone do not have independent monetary sovereignty. Once the sovereign debt problem is exposed, it will not be able to be rescued by the self hydraulic universal testing machine, which mainly adopts the high-pressure hydraulic source as the power source, which also determines that the debt crisis of some countries will inevitably affect the entire Euro economic circle. The trend of economic growth is the core influencing factor of the rise in oil prices. Whether the European sovereign debt problem can be properly solved in June will determine the trend of market confidence with an attitude of excellence, which is also the key to the rise and fall of oil prices in June. Judging from the current situation, the market still has doubts about the existing solutions, especially the worry about the expansion of the crisis is the mainstream consensus of the market. In June, the market will face the greatest possibility of deepening the development of the crisis. Therefore, even if the peak demand in summer comes, it is difficult for the crude oil market to get rid of the current price range, with bulls fleeing and short speculation under heavy pressure

2. Supply environment

the main advantage faced in June came from the reduction in device supply. Zhenhai ethylene cracking unit is likely to still be difficult to start, while Yangzi will resolutely remove BASF from the market, and the start-up time will be postponed to mid June. Jilin Petrochemical hdpe/lldpe unit will start maintenance in the first and last ten days of June. Daqing Petrochemical LDPE will enter maintenance on June 24,

Shanghai Jinfei also has a maintenance plan of about two weeks. In total, it is possible to reduce production capacity by about 10%. The import volume will still face pressure. At present, the port inventory is high, and the early arrival is the main pressure. It is expected that the imported materials will face greater de stocking pressure in June. On the whole, the supply pressure of PE in June was still biased. The major flexible packaging multinational companies around the world began to target large business opportunities, but there would be no significant change, and it would be difficult to become the main factor affecting the PE market

3. Downstream demand

the summer demand characteristics of the PE market will be relatively obvious in June, lldpe/ldpe will perform prominently in the off-season, and the demand for some HDPE varieties is relatively good, but it is difficult to break through the new domestic supply pressure. Therefore, the change of PE demand in June cannot have a qualitative impact on the market, and its position in the fundamentals of supply and demand will not change

to sum up, it is obvious that the PE market cannot get rid of the impact of the general environment of the commodity market, and the oil price will still be the key factor leading the rise and fall of PE prices. At present, the conditions for the market rebound in June are not available, and the possibility of further expansion of downward space cannot be ruled out. However, the supply pressure may change relatively gently, which may mean the increase of the fluctuation frequency of PE market in a small range

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